This month and next will be able to measure the effectiveness of Plan E to halt the decline in unemployment. Plan is a bit innovative in the sense that simply implements recommendations of the IMF and its purpose in the English case is merely palliative and that, contrary to what happens in other countries like U.S. or UK crisis English is much more structural than financial. As I see it, the only objective is to try to fill a brutal drop in demand, and simultaneously solve part of the problem of funding that municipalities have been found to fall construction. What is palliative
not imply that it was not necessary, the state could not afford that unemployment continued to fall at that speed without compromising the entire system of social insurance, therefore, I do believe it was necessary to pull the deficit and cover the fall of market demand. However, palliative care are not sufficient to start the road to recovery, so it is surprising that neither government nor the opposition have been submitted to parliament debate on structural reform plan in which the state must play a key role in both investment and regulation (or deregulation).
If the government wants to weather the crisis with palliative care without taking risks, I think the recovery will be very long. In Spain there is little investment culture of risk by the private sector will be difficult for "market forces" do we get out of the crisis with a competitive and diversified economy, rather I believe that it is done, we will leave when Germans come to spend the summer back to Spain.
I think Spain needs a new industrial restructuring to create and strengthen high value added businesses where we are internationally competitive, something virtually nonexistent within the existing industrial mix English. The mission of government should be to create an export industry based on technological differentiation and not a cost competitive advantage. The industry should help balance the English balance of payments and diversify an economy based on tourism and construction.
Given the delay that Spain has in most sectors, the emergence of this industry will require government subsidies, either in the form of direct payments (and often defend certain progressive) or in the form of tax cuts for the Irish (as some conservatives like). In fact, there are more than differences of form, in both cases the money ends up in companies that seek to support.
I'm not asking the government to put all your eggs in one basket, that's not a state itself must take the long view, but in a few, and especially in those sectors where Spain is emerging competitive (such as be renewable energy) and in sectors with high added value set (such as the software industry and the semiconductor industries in both average net profits above 20%). I think that with the help of government, Spain can compete in these sectors also established to facilitate the arrival of existing businesses and the creation of new businesses.
Additionally, CDTI, or at least a part of it should move away from its traditional role and move to become a venture capitalist, a sector that is still quite weak in Spain (though improved somewhat over the years profit). I do not mean current programs soft loans to new businesses or simple systems with very limited funds incubator, but a true Venture Capitalist to the Silicon Valley, you can put 5 million euros on the table if necessary, and possesses the corresponding percentage of the company. Many of these projects go wrong, and in some cases 11 months later Google will buy more than 1000 million and offset heavy losses. But in either case, the main objective is not so much profit (which can and should get), but the creation of companies to compete internationally and not just local.
are changes that have been pending since 2000, and that budget level would have been easier to do then than now when it will increase the deficit. However, there is a positive side that these changes are addressed at present is that the gravity of the situation may allow them to question unless measures riskier plan.
Extraordinary circumstances require extraordinary measures, and the fact that simply can not accommodate the boom can help that this time they face this second industrial restructuring that so many have been claiming for years.
Update: Another 100,000 more unemployed in March, this is a disaster. If it increases again in April 100 000 case and make me buy more guns.
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